From the very onset
of the COVID-19 epidemic, Centre for Modeling & Simulation is at
the forefront of modeling efforts. Find out how a small department has contributed immensely towards
the fight against pandemic of SARS-COV2 coronavirus.
"INDSCI-SIM" model
CMS is part of pan-India group of scientists that models the coronavirus
spread in India using highly advanced epidemiological model.
Features of the model include:
State-of-the-art mathematical model to forecast infection number as well as load on infrastructure
Different levels of granularity like states, districts, cities, city-wards etc.
Multiple modes of mobility of people across the geographic regions
INDSCI-SIM model is part of larger pan-India movement "Indian Scientists Response to COVID-19"
In March 2020, CMS published one of the first preprints that
studied the spread on COVID-19 in India.
Salient features
include:
First India centric hybrid coronavirus model that
highlighted the role of public mobility,
Formulation of
novel approach using realistic transport network,
Important predictions including the impact on larger cities like
Mumbai.
Preprint:
Multi-city modeling of epidemics using spatial
networks: Application to 2019-nCov (COVID-19) coronavirus in
India. Bhalchandra Pujari & Snehal Shekatkar,
medRxiv,2020
Several other tools are developed by CMS to analyse the
progress of the epidemic like computation of real-time reproduction
number, or doubling time of disease etc.
CMS for Policy Makers
CMS is actively involved in consulting in various capacities with several organization across India to fight COVID-19.
Some organizations involved:
Pune Municipal Corporation
Pune district administration
Department of science and technology, Govt. of India
Members of CMS are part of Pune Knowledge Cluster which further
advises the government on various policies
Knowledge to people
CMS is involved in
educating people by regular outreach activities
like public talks and newspaper articles
The Centre takes immense pride in her students. At the time of
national calamity, the students are by no means lagging behind. Our
students are active members of various online/offline efforts.
For
example many students volunteers are responsible for generating and
maintaining national online resources like the one you see on Indian Scientists' Response to COVID-19 dashboard,
that automatically tracks the various district-level indicators every day.
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i = 0;
while (!deck.isInOrder()) {
print 'Iteration ' + i;
deck.shuffle();
i++;
}
print 'It took ' + i + ' iterations to sort the deck.';
